Newsletter · Issue 1 v2 · June 2026

Two distinct profiles, the same consistency

Mahfi Eğilmez (mainstream academic) and Kerem Alkin (global strategist) — two entirely different economists, the same consistency score: 67/100. Atilla Yeşilada (bearish outlier) scores 46/100 in the tail-scenario commentator profile. Murat Muratoğlu is video-only.

Four distinct windows onto Turkish financial commentary. Their evidenced consistency, side by side, for the first time.

Cross-Media Analyst Audit — Issue 1 June 2026 · 14 names reviewed

Anchor Mahfi Eğilmez

67/100

Global Kerem Alkin ⭐

67/100

Outlier Atilla Yeşilada

46/100

YT-only Murat Muratoğlu

24/100

Limited Hakan Kara

YT-only

YT-only +4 commentators (panel)

video

Untrackable 4 names (passive list)

—

1. Mahfi Eğilmez Anchor

67/100

Data: 10 YouTube guest appearances (Emre Alkin, Barış Soydan, Özlem Gürses, Atilla Yeşilada channels) + 100 blog posts (mahfiegilmez.com, 2025-10 → 2026-05)

Consistency components

Topic match

0.49

3 overlap months · Jaccard

Numeric density

0.80

full-text 99%

Tradia verification

0.80

CBRT+TÜİK

Profile

Mainstream academic. Forecasts aligned with consensus.

Key observations

USD/TRY "45-54 TL range" → fully aligned with CBRT Expectations Survey (51.57 year-end, 54.69 12-month)
2023 current account deficit $45B forecast → TÜİK actual $45.4B (anchor validation)
CDS premium decline call → matches observed move

Value for Tradia: Consensus validator. When signals conflict with the CBRT survey, Mahfi serves as a cross-check reference.

Gap: Does NOT issue housing-specific forecasts (only 1/100 posts). Mahfi provides the macro frame; direct real estate signals need other sources.

2. Kerem Alkin Global Strategist ⭐

67/100

Data: 14 YouTube guest appearances + 90 Sabah columns (2025-10 → 2026-05)

Consistency components

Topic match

0.62

7 overlap months · HIGHEST

Numeric density

0.80

full-text 100%

Tradia verification

0.50

geopolitical domain

Profile

Academic strategist. Global geopolitics dominant (Yalta, Thucydides, New World Order, Energy Diplomacy).

Key observations

Writes global-geopolitical for Sabah, speaks Turkey-macro on YouTube — parallel themes, disciplined tone
Last 5 column headlines: Beijing Xi-Trump, Yalta 2025, Thucydides Trap, Turkey industrialisation, Istanbul Energy Summit
7 overlap months = regular output

Value for Tradia: The single byline for reading Turkey within the global system. Answers the investor question "which way is the global wind blowing?"

Gap: NO direct Turkey housing/real-estate forecast. Kerem produces macro + geopolitical analysis.

3. Atilla Yeşilada Outlier

46/100

Data: 195 videos (own channel) + 68 Paraborsa articles (2024-06 → 2026-05, 32% full-text via Cloudscraper)

Consistency components

Topic match

0.40

19 overlap months

Numeric density

0.53

full-text 32%

Tradia verification

0.45

tail scenarios

Profile

Bearish outlier. Crisis/war scenario commentator.

Key observations

USD/TRY "250 TL" tail forecast (CBRT consensus 54.69) — 5× away from consensus
Policy rate 63% expectation (consensus 37%) — +21 points higher
Oil $150-200 (90% probability) — war-conditioned
22 overlap months = widest data window

Value for Tradia: Risk-scenario source. The answer to "what's the worst case?" When you hear consensus, do not forget Atilla's tail scenario.

Gap: Since he is a perpetual outlier, calibration is needed — applying a ~50% discount to each forecast may be reasonable.

4. Murat Muratoğlu YT-only Insufficient

24/100

Data: 1 YouTube guest appearance + 12 archived koseyazarioku posts (2024-11)

Issue: Current Sözcü columns are inaccessible (JS-rendered + no author metadata in sitemap).

Tradia profile (own channel): 205 own videos — one of the most prolific commentators (Sprint 12 regex).

Cross-media audit cannot be performed. The 24/100 score is computed from only 12 old posts + 1 guest appearance — misleading.

Value for Tradia: YouTube tracking only. Rich forecasts on his own channel, but consistency cannot be audited without written-side access.

Next step: Manual Sözcü link collection or Twitter monitoring — Sprint 30+

YT-only Commentators (Panel)

No written source available for cross-media audit, but active on YouTube. Tradia continues video-based monitoring.

Barış Soydan

216 videos · most prolific

2025-05 → 2026-05. BIST + commodity focus, frequent CEO/CFO guests.

▸ Equity + gold movement tracking

Emre Alkin

154 videos · 3 years steady

Academic. Thematic sibling of Kerem at Sabah. Inflation (22), FX (6).

▸ Could become 5th VALID if written source surfaces

Özlem Gürses

57 videos

Energy + geopolitics (overlap with Atilla). Strait of Hormuz, natural gas, oil.

▸ Energy + foreign policy signal

Cüneyt Özdemir

41 videos

Journalist-commentator with varied guests. 5G, exports, Golden Visa.

▸ Golden Visa (real estate-citizenship)

Selçuk Geçer

26 videos total · 1 relevant

Independent commentator. Low recurrence in Tradia pool.

▸ Low priority, revisit later

Limited — Hakan Kara Limited

Data: 17 YouTube guest appearances (Barış Soydan 13, Özlem 2, Emre 2) + 3 Economics & Society articles (archive: 2012, 2021, 2022)

Issue: No regular RSS on the written side (academic journal). Overlap months: 0.

Profile: Former CBRT Chief Economist, Bilkent academic. As YouTube guest, rising trend: 2023→2 / 2024→5 / 2025→24 / 2026→26.

For Tradia: Tracked through the YouTube module only. Tradia indexes the videos he guests in; a separate consistency score cannot be computed.

Untrackable — 4 Names

Outside Tradia tracking:

Name	Reason	Tradia decision
Şant Manukyan	Personal blog stopped in April 2024; current analysis in İş Yatırım institutional reports (outside Tradia scope)	Passive list
Cüneyt Başaran	Habertürk TV host; no written output	Passive list
Refik Erduran	Former columnist (Milliyet 1965-81, Güneş 81-84)	Passive list
Servet Yıldırım	Has Ekonomi Gazetesi column, but not caught in Tradia pool via RSS/scrape	Retry in Sprint 30

Methodology

Consistency formula

Score = (topic_match × 0.4 + numeric_density × 0.4 + tradia_verification × 0.2) × 100

topic_match: Jaccard similarity of YouTube and written content per overlap month (13 core economic topics)
numeric_density: Full-text ratio × 0.4 + 0.4 (fixed baseline)
tradia_verification: Alignment of analyst's specific forecasts with CBRT KFE + Expectations Survey + TÜİK (0-1)

Data sources

▸ YouTube transcripts: 3,001 videos (CC-Social Phase 1)
▸ Written: Mahfi blog (Atom RSS), Paraborsa (Cloudscraper), Sabah (HTML scrape)
▸ Verification: CBRT data (2026-05), TÜİK, Tradia news pool

Transparency

▸ Every pattern + computation filed (~/Desktop/cc_sosyal/4_analist_revize_skorlar.json)
▸ LIMITED tag: for analysts with full-text <50% (Atilla 32%, Murat 0%)
▸ Score components documented in the methodology note (measurement, not manipulation)

For Tradia: "Two Profiles, One Table"

Reading Mahfi 67 (Anchor) and Kerem 67 (Global) side by side gives the investor complementary information:

Question	Answer
What does Turkey consensus say?	Mahfi (USD/TRY 54, CPI 29%)
Which way is the global wind?	Kerem (Yalta 2025, New World Order, Energy)
What is the worst case?	Atilla (250 TL, 63% rate, oil $200)
Equity + commodity move?	Barış Soydan (YT-only)
Energy + geopolitics?	Özlem Gürses (YT-only)
Academic macro?	Emre Alkin (YT-only, Kerem's brother)

→ Instead of single-analyst tracking, pick reference by profile type.

Tradia Cross-Media Analyst Audit

A first in Turkish media. Measures the consistency between the same analyst's video and written work — evidenced and automated.

4 VALID · 6 profiles · 14 names · 0% cost · 100% transparency

Candidate Topics — Upcoming Issues

Issue 2 (July): Mehmet Şimşek special — the pool's dominant name with 2,270 mentions. State source (Treasury scrape) + analyst commentary.
Issue 3: Historical event × analyst reaction — for 26 historical events (earthquake, election, Karahan appointment), how did each analyst respond?
Issue 4: YT-only commentator comparison — Barış, Emre, Özlem, Cüneyt, Selçuk profile typology.

Tradia Cross-Media Analyst Audit
Independent · Automated · Evidenced · Transparent
Issue 1 v2 — June 2026